Chapter 11
Inside Version 4

What does the future hold for the AS/400? In this chapter, we look at Version 4 software and hardware to see what you might expect in the near-term future. Then in Chapter 12, we look at the AS/400 beyond Version 4. Exactly what lies beyond Version 4 is anyone’s guess. We do, however, know about some new technologies that likely will change the entire computer industry in the next 5 to 10 years, so I speculate about how these technologies might influence the future of the AS/400.

Of course, speculation about the future of any system is just that; it’s speculation. We are in an era of continuous changes in the ways we do business, and we are deploying computer technologies to help accomplish those business changes. Predicting the future for various hardware and software technologies is fairly easy; the difficult part is selecting which new technologies will best solve our business problems. IBM is investing in several new technologies, but because of the volatility of current technologies (and to protect IBM’s competitive interests), I am reluctant to go into some of these plans in detail. I will not hesitate, however, to speculate about major trends and how they might affect the AS/400.

We are also in a fashion industry. One way I predict the future is to read airline magazines. If your boss reads an article in one of these magazines about some trendy new model of computing for your industry, the chances are good that (s)he will ask you to implement that model in your business. No one wants to fall behind when it comes to the latest fashions in computing. In this chapter, we look at some of the current fashions and the technologies that are enabling them.

AS/400 Enhancements for Version 4

Earlier, I described Version 3 as being a transition to RISC. Separate releases of OS/400 for both the CISC and RISC models of the AS/400 allowed customers to maintain functional parity between the old and new models. With the introduction of Version 4 in 1997, that changed. The investments IBM is making in Version 4 to bring new functions to the AS/400 will be available only on the RISC models. As appropriate, some of these new functions also may be available on the CISC models, but IBM will not maintain functional parity between the systems. Of course, as I have already noted, applications written for any CISC model still run without change on Version 4, making full use of the new RISC hardware.

Since the introduction of the original AS/400 in 1988, each version of the software has had a three-year life. The number of software releases has varied within each version, but the three-year total life has been consistent. I have no reason to doubt that Version 4 will follow this same pattern. Multiple releases are starting in 1997 and will continue through 1999. With the fast-paced world we live in, we are likely to see more releases in Version 4 than we have seen in previous versions. And if history repeats itself, we can expect to see either a new version or a totally new system some time in the year 2000. In the next chapter, I speculate about what might happen to the AS/400 beyond 2000.

IBM is making major investments in various areas for the AS/400. Figure 11.1 shows the investment areas for e-business that are being made for Version 4.¹ These areas reflect the directions our industry and AS/400 customers are going over the next couple of years. They also indicate some of the types of enhancements you can expect to see in the AS/400. In the following sections, we look at three application models (network computing, collaborative computing, and client/server computing), two software investment areas (application enablement and data capabilities), and two hardware investment areas (high-end growth and price/performance improvements). We have already covered some of these topics in earlier chapters, so I examine some investment areas in less detail than I do others. Let’s start with network computing, the application model that is receiving the most attention in the industry.

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¹Recall that the e-business approach to delivering business solutions combines the systems and processes that run core operations with the simplicity and reach made possible by Internet technologies and the Worldwide Web.

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Figure 11.1  AS/400 Investments for e-business

Network Computing

In the computer industry, we love revolutions. Every so often, some new, revolutionary model of business computing comes onto the scene. Newspapers, magazines, consultants, and other business pundits extol the virtues of the new model and encourage us to adopt it immediately in our businesses. But the only revolutions that have lasting impact are those that fundamentally change the way we do business, and the only viable reason to change how we do business is to solve real-world problems or provide increased financial rewards for the business.

On the one hand, because the PC revolution changed the way we do business, we could argue that it was an overwhelming success. PCs have fundamentally changed computing for all of us. On the other hand, the client/server revolution is still struggling to be successful. The client/server application model is a very viable model for many businesses, but others have found that the costs and complexities of client/server computing are not offset with sufficient business benefits. (In a later section, we look at how the AS/400 is simplifying client/server computing to make it more attractive for even more businesses.)

Costs and risks usually are involved in changing our business computing model, so we must question whether a new idea will provide enough long-term benefits to offset the costs and risks. And all too often, revolutionary ideas fail to deliver on their promises, and there is no way to know which ideas will succeed in our business and which ones will fail. At the same time, we don’t want to lose out on the business benefits of new ideas that may work, so we typically adopt a wait-and-see approach: Let someone else try it first. After all, we argue, companies that adopt any leading-edge concepts early are more likely to become sacrificial offerings. Few of us want to be on the bleeding edge.